A false choice

It occurs to me that lately the “debate” over energy policy in this country has been foundered by the push for a more “green” environmental policy. This co-mingling of the two issues has led to a public perception of a false choice — either we are for energy production or we are for a clean environment.

I believe this is a false choice. Nothing in this world is black-and-white, and the notion that we can’t produce energy and protect the environment is misleading.

I will readily concede that accidents happen. But every “disaster” that we have witnessed since Three-mile Island has been handled and rectified. The mistake that we make is to say “since it’s happened in the past, we can’t take any more chances.”

This country is unique in that risk is what we do best. We gamble big and we either win big or lose big. But while losses happen, the wins are what make us great.

This growing paralysis is disconcerting. It weakens us as a nation and it causes us to starve ourselves. I say that if any nation can solve the problem of balancing energy production with environmental conservation, it’s this country.

Let’s start by trying to accomplish both goals instead of insisting that it’s an “either-or” proposition. I’m betting we’ll be pleasantly surprised with the outcome.

Don’t celebrate just yet

Listening to the media today, you’d think that a 2.5% growth rate for the third quarter GDP was the best news ever.  They’d have you believe that the “Great Recession” is over, and that jobs are just over the next hill.  Well, before you start celebrating, let’s take a closer look at this number.

First, what is never widely reported is that all initial estimates of GDP growth (or decline) are revised within a month of their release.  In the past 12 quarters, that number has been revised down all 12 of those times.  So, what is 2.5% today can be counted on to be smaller by the time the number is revised.

Second, to affect a recession and reduce unemployment, we need to see at least a 5% growth rate in GDP, preferably closer to 7%.  I know on the surface 2.5% doesn’t look too far from 5%, but you’re talking about doubling or tripling the economic output of an entire nation, which is very hard to do in the face of government interventionism.

If there is any good news out of the GDP number it’s that we may finally be getting it back to 2008 levels, which would normally be fantastic news if we hadn’t added over $4T in public debt since then.  Our debt-to-GDP ratio is still hauntingly close to 100%, which is fatal to most economies historically.

So, does this upward tick mean that we’re finally pulling out of the recession? Possibly.  This economy has given us head-fakes before and the media and markets are too quick to act on changes in numbers.  What we need to see is consistent, increasing growth.  If that happens then we may finally see the unemployment rate drop, which would be the true catalyst to recovery.

Wake me in three months and I’ll let you know!

Wither the Arab Spring?

You know, as I look back at the uprisings across the Arab world this year, I can’t help but be saddened by those in the media and in the halls of government that tried to spin this as a “good thing.” They insisted that a democracy movement was sweeping across the region and that the people would choose governments like those in the West.

So how’s that working out? Let’s see….

Egypt — Nobody talks about Egypt anymore. You know why?  They overthrew one military dictatorship for another.  In a sense all they accomplished for their protests was a change in generals.

Syria — Boy did that fizzle.  The government has no problem shooting at their own people to quell dissent.

Tunisia — As recent as today the people are in favor of an Islamist government.  See Iran, et al. for how that works out.

Libya — There’s a call amongst resistance leaders for an introduction of Sharia Law. Won’t that be great.

And now we’re leaving Iraq and Afghanistan, where both fledgling governments won’t stand a chance without our support.

So, I ask you, how’s the ol’ “bringing democracy to the Arab World” working out?

An Old Gypsy Curse…

There’s an old gypsy curse that says “may you get everything you wish for.”  On the surface it sounds like a blessing, but think about what happens the day after.

Today, President Obama announced that all U.S. troops will leave Iraq by year-end.  Certainly his base is thrilled at this announcement.  And certainly the rest of us are hardly surprised.  Obama has been doing everything humanly possible to satiate the rabid Left and their recent growing discontent with his “lack of dedication” to the cause.

Politically speaking, it makes perfect sense.  Since barely 20% of Americans self-identify as “liberal,” he needs to get as many of them in his pocket before he can start his assault against the 40% that self-identify as “independent.”  When he won election in 2008 he had overwhelming success with the moderates, but this time around he’s got a much harder sell because many of them have been questioning their vote ever since they made it.

Still, by fulfilling campaign promises he improves his chances with the middle.  Certainly Iraq is a lightning rod for controversy, and he serves himself in two ways by letting the U.S. agreement with Iraq end on Dec. 31.  Clearly, he benefits from being able to say “I brought the troops home.”  But he also benefits from it no longer being an issue for 2012.

So today the Left is mollified.  Today.  What does tomorrow bring?

 

Welcome to rantism

Hi and welcome to rantism.  I started this blog because I found that I rant far too often about current events on Facebook, and my friends are getting sick of it.  Besides, I feel I have some useful points to make and getting them out there for all to see is a good thing, right?

I am a conservative in my political philosophy.  If that bugs you or threatens you, I apologize.  But that’s tough.  It wouldn’t hurt you to hear alternate points of view.  Maybe we can even have a dialog and understand each other better.  Wouldn’t that just be awful?  But fear not, my leftward friends.  Coming soon we’ll have more writers that will rant for themselves from your side of the aisle. 

Anyway, I hope you find the topics interesting and thought-provoking.  Enjoy!

DW